voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-2-5-34voprecotest-3397Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMACROECONOMIC POLICYЧто мы (не) знаем об эффективности инструментов ДКП в современном мире?What do we (not) know about the effectiveness of the monetary policy tools in the modern world?https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2692-6023ГорюновЕ. Л.GoryunovE. L.

Горюнов Евгений Львович , научный сотрудник Института Гайдара, преподаватель кафедры макроэкономики Отделения экономики Института экономики, математики и информационных технологий РАНХиГС

Москва

Eugene L. Goryunov

Moscow

gorunov@iep.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3979-0981ДробышевскийС. М.DrobyshevskyS. M.

Дробышевский Сергей Михайлович, доктор экономических наук, директор по научной работе Института Гайдара, замдиректора по науке Института прикладных экономических исследований (ИПЭИ) РАНХиГС

Москва

Sergey M. Drobyshevsky

Moscow

dsm@iep.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5407-4473МауВ. А.MauV. A.

Мау Владимир Александрович, доктор экономических наук, проф., ректор

Москва

Vladimir A. Mau

Moscow

rector@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8306-9422ТрунинП. В.TruninP. V.

Трунин Павел Вячеславович, доктор экономических наук, руководитель научного направления «Макроэкономика и финансы» Института Гайдара, директор Центра изучения проблем центральных банков ИПЭИ РАНХиГС

Москва

Pavel V. Trunin

Moscow

pt@iep.ruИнститут экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian FederationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation20210702202102534Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3397

Решающую роль в обеспечении макроэкономической стабильности в развитых странах в период с середины 1980-х до 2007 г. сыграла денежно-кредитная политика, которая оказалась эффективным инструментом сглаживания экономического цикла и поддержания ценовой стабильности. После мирового финансового кризиса 2008—2009 гг. эффективность монетарной политики стала вызывать вопросы, поскольку, несмотря на широкое применение как традиционных, так и нетрадиционных мер, быстро восстановить экономический рост в развитых странах не удалось. В статье рассматриваются факторы, обусловившие падение эффективности монетарной политики в современных макроэкономических условиях, в числе которых глобальная дезинфляция, уменьшение наклона кривой Филлипса, проблема эффективной границы номинальных ставок и снижение нейтрального уровня реальной ставки. Анализируются нетрадиционные инструменты монетарной политики, включая так называемые «вертолетные деньги», целевое рефинансирование и другие перспективные инструменты. Критически обсуждаются рекомендации современной денежной теории (ММТ) как наиболее системной неортодоксальной альтернативной теории. На основе проведенного анализа сделаны выводы о возможном ослаблении эффективности монетарной политики в России в обозримом будущем и о целесообразности использовать гибридные фискально-монетарные инструменты.

Monetary policy played a dominant role in ensuring macroeconomic stability in the advanced economies for two decades, from the mid-1980s to 2007, and appeared to be a very effective tool for smoothing economic cycles and maintaining price stability. After the global financial crisis of 2007—2009 the effectiveness of monetary policy was put under question, since it did not succeed in ensuring rapid economic recovery in the advanced economies despite massive use of both conventional and unconventional monetary tools. The paper addresses the factors which are responsible for the weakening of the monetary policy effectiveness including global disinflation, the Phillips curve flattening, the effective lower bound problem and the neutral real rate decline. Unconventional monetary policy tools, such as the “helicopter money”, targeted refinancing and other prospective tools, are analyzed. We critically assess recommendations of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as the most consistent heterodox theory. Based on the analysis, we draw conclusions about the possibility of monetary policy weakening in Russia in the foreseeable future and desirability of the implementation of the hybrid fiscal-monetary measures.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.