voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-7-89-106voprecotest-3393Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОТРАСЛЕВЫХ РЫНКОВINDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONСтратегии поведения российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности в отношении импорта в условиях экономических санкцийStrategies of Russian industrial enterprises’ importing behavior under economic sanctionshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5034-9345ГоликоваВ. В.GolikovaV. V.

Голикова Виктория Владимировна, кандидат экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Института анализа предприятий и рынков 

ScopusAuthorID 57127200100

Москва

Victoria V. Golikova

Moscow

victoria@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3250-875XКузнецовБ. В.KuznetsovB. V.

Кузнецов Борис Викторович, кандидат экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник ИАПР, ординарный профессор департамента прикладной экономики факультета экономических наук 

Scopus AuthorID 16039562100

Москва

Boris V. Kuznetsov

Moscow

bkuz@bk.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation2021090720210789106Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3393

В работе рассматривается импорт как один из каналов трансмиссии внешних шоков на поведение промышленных компаний России на основе результатов обследований 2014 г. и 2018 г. Цель исследования – выявление стратегий импортных закупок в условиях действия экономических санкций и оценка потенциала импортозамещения. Выявлена устойчивость стратегий импортных закупок, сохранение высокой зависимости от поставок импортного оборудования для проведения технологической модернизации и обеспечения конкурентоспособности продукции. Показано, что текущие масштабы импортозамещения невелики, отсутствует существенная трансформация географии импортных поставок, за исключением резкого падения доли предприятий-импортеров из Украины. На основе эконометрических расчетов двумерной пробит модели, учитывающей одновременное участие фирмы в импорте сырья, материалов и комплектующих и оборудования показано, что импорт сырья критически важен для предприятий, экспортирующих в Европу, а импорт оборудования для экспорта в страны Таможенного Союза и СНГ.

The paper utilizes survey data of 2014 and 2018 for the analysis of import as one of the transmission channels of external shocks on the behavior of Russian industrial enterprises. The study aims to reveal strategies of importing under sanctions’ regime and evaluate the potential of import substitution. It demonstrates sustainability of business strategies with regard to importing and maintaining trends of high dependence on import equipment for technological modernization and competitiveness of products. The current scale of import substitution is modest, there is a lack of substantial transformation of geography of importing except radically diminished share of importers from Ukraine. Bi-probit econometric estimations that take into consideration firm’ simultaneous involvement in importing of interim products and equipment demonstrate that import of the former is critically important for the firms exporting to Europe, while the latter is associated with exporting to the members of the Customs’ Union and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.