voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-5-43-56voprecotest-3370Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL ECONOMICSГлобальный финансовый цикл: концепция, эмпирическая оценка и следствия для экономической политикиThe global financial cycle: Notion, empirical evidence and policy implicationshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-7633СтолбовМ. И.StolbovM. I.

Столбов Михаил Иосифович, д. э. н., завкафедрой прикладной экономики

Москва

Mikhail I. Stolbov

Moscow

stolbov_mi@mail.ruМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (Университет) МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation202112052021054356Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3370

В статье рассмотрена концепция глобального финансового цикла, предложенная Э. Рей с соавторами. Обсуждаются движущие силы глобального финансового цикла, а также результаты эмпирических исследований этой концепции. Показано, что признание шоков монетарной политики США в качестве первоосновы глобального финансового цикла не означает отказ от идеи «несовместимой троицы» (или «невозможной троицы») при проведении макроэкономической политики: режим плавающего валютного курса по-прежнему способствует смягчению внешних шоков в случае развивающихся стран и государств с формирующимся рынком. При этом его эффект может быть усилен за счет мер макропруденциального регулирования и частичного ограничения движения капитала. Рассматриваются некоторые направления развития концепции глобального финансового цикла.

The article deals with the notion of the global financial cycle proposed by H. Rey and her co-authors. The driving forces of the global financial cycle are discussed along with the findings of the empirical papers testing this concept. It is shown that recognizing US monetary policy shocks as a major driver of the global financial cycle does not undermine the validity of the well-known “trilemma”: using the floating exchange rate regime still partly cushions developing and emerging market economies from external shocks. Its effect can be reinforced if macroprudential policy measures or partial restrictions on capital mobility are also applied. The review concludes by discussing possible extensions to the concept of global financial cycle.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.