voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-6-77-102voprecotest-3250Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY POLICYАсимметричные эффекты денежно-кредитной политики в регионах РоссииAsymmetric effects of monetary policy in Russiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5201-3207ДемидоваО. А.DemidovaO. A.

Демидова Ольга Анатольевна, к. ф.-м. н., доцент департамента прикладной экономики факультета экономических наук НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

 

Moscow

demidova@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9310-8840КарнауховаЕ. Е.KarnaukhovaE. E.

Карнаухова Елизавета Евгеньевна, студентка 1 курса магистерской программы «Прикладная экономика» НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Moscow

eekarnaukhova@edu.hse.ruКоршуновД. А.KorshunovD. A.

Коршунов Дмитрий Александрович, советник ГУ Банка России по Центральному федеральному округу

Москва

Moscow

KorshunovDA@cbr.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8513-366XМясниковА. А.MyasnikovA. A.

Мясников Александр Алексеевич, к. э. н., доцент департамента теоретической экономики факультета экономических наук НИУ ВШЭ, доцент кафедры политической экономии и истории экономической науки РЭУ им. Г. В. Плеханова

Москва

Moscow

amyasnikov@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2856-9867СерегинаС. Ф.SereginaS. F.

Серегина Светлана Федоровна, д. э. н., проф. департамента теоретической экономики факультета экономических наук НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Moscow

sseregina@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian FederationБанк РоссииРоссияBank of RussiaRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Российский экономический университет имени Г. В. ПлехановаРоссияHSE University; lekhanov Russian University of EconomicsRussian Federation2021070620210677102Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3250

В работе проанализировано неоднородное влияние денежно-кредитной политики на темпы роста реальных среднедушевых доходов в 79 регионах России за период со II кв. 2015 г. по IV кв. 2019 г. с учетом действия трансмиссионных механизмов и наличия пространственных эффектов. Анализ проведен с использованием панельных данных и пространственной авторегрессионной модели. Рассчитаны индивидуальные прямые эффекты изменения ключевой ставки для каждого исследуемого региона. Полученные результаты свидетельствуют об отрицательной связи между изменением ключевой ставки и темпами роста реальных доходов. При этом наблюдается асимметричное влияние ключевой ставки на темпы роста в разных регионах. Значимые характеристики, влияющие на неоднородность эффектов, — промышленный состав региона и концентрация малых предприятий. Выявлены значимые пространственные взаимосвязи: эффект влияния российских регионов друг на друга оказался положительным. Результаты данной работы согласуются с выводами, полученными в исследованиях, в которых были проанализированы эффекты монетарной политики в разных странах.

We analyze the heterogeneous influence that monetary policy has on the growth rates of real personal income in 79 Russian regions over the period from 2Q2015 to 4Q2019, taking into account some of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism and spatial effects. The analysis was performed on the basis of panel data and a spatial autoregressive model. Besides that, we have calculated individual direct effects of changes of the interest rate for each region. Our results confirm the existence of a negative relationship between changes in the interest rate and growth rates of real personal income. This relationship is heterogeneous for different regions. Among the significant factors affecting the heterogeneity of the influence of monetary policy are the industrial structure and concentration of small businesses in regional economies. We have also found significant positive spatial effects of neighboring regions on each other. Our results generally coincide with those received in analyses of the effects of monetary policy in other countries.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.