voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-8-93-122voprecotest-3188Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОТРАСЛЕВЫХ РЫНКОВINDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONВлияние цифровых многосторонних платформ на выживаемость фирм отрасли розничной торговлиImpact of digital multi-sided platforms on firm survival in retailhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1526-272XАндроноваЕ. С.AndronovaE. S.

Андронова Екатерина Сергеевна, м. н. с. лаборатории анализа данных и отраслевой динамики Института прикладных экономических исследований (ИПЭИ)

Москва

Ekaterina S. Andronova

Moscow

andronova-es@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8207-1790РейА. И.ReyA. I.

Рей Алексей Игоревич, к. э. н., заведующий научно-исследовательской лабораторией анализа данных и отраслевой динамики ИПЭИ

Москва

Aleksey I. Rey

Moscow

rey-ai@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5574-1437АкжигитоваГ. Р.AkzhigitovaG. R.

Акжигитова Галия Рустамовна, м. н. с. лаборатории анализа данных и отраслевой динамики ИПЭИ

Москва

Galya R. Akzhigitova

Moscow

akzhigitova-gr@ranepa.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation2021070820210893122Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3188

Анализируется выживаемость компаний сферы розничной торговли в период распространения цифровых многосторонних платформ: информационного агрегатора Яндекс.Маркет, маркетплейса Wildberries, интернетгипермаркета Ozon и платформы классифицированной рекламы Avito. Для построения графика выживаемости использована непараметрическая оценка функции выживаемости цензурированных данных Каплана—Мейера по основным сегментам отрасли. Для оценки влияния распространения платформ и проверки гипотез об их влиянии на выживаемость фирм разных размеров и разных продуктовых категорий применена модель пропорциональных рисков Кокса с изменяющимися во времени переменными для анализа выборки, состоящей из 130 тысяч компаний. Платформы-агрегаторы Яндекс.Маркет и Wildberries повышают вероятность выживаемости фирм, а платформы-«трансформаторы» Ozon и Avito оказывают негативное влияние на выживаемость фирм отрасли. Информационный агрегатор наиболее сильно снижает вероятность выживаемости фирм с высокой асимметрией информации. Маркетплейс Wildberries оказывает наиболее сильное влияние на выживаемость фирм в сегментах, на которых платформа специализируется. Данная гипотеза не подтвердилась для платформ Ozon и Avito.

This paper explores firm survival in Russian retail industry in cases of digital multi-sided platforms penetration such as aggregator Yandex.Market, marketplace Wildberries, electronic store Ozon and classified-ad service Avito. The panel data set of 130 thousand firms was analyzed using two methods: non-parametric Kaplan—Meier estimator and semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model with time dependent covariates. Kaplan—Meier estimator calculates the survival function for censored data. Cox proportional hazards model examines the effect of platform penetration on hazard rates of differently sized firms in various industry spheres. Platforms-aggregators Yandex.Market and Wildberries have a strong positive impact on firm survival while platformsdisruptors Ozon and Avito increase likelihood of firm failure. The main results of platform influence in various industry spheres are as follows: the aggregator of price offers has a more positive impact on segments with high information asymmetry; and firms specialized on Wildberries key product categories enjoy lower hazard ratios of bankruptcy or liquidation. These hypotheses are not supported for Ozon and Avito platforms.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.