voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-9-5-21voprecotest-3144Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY POLICY«Черный ящик» процентного канала денежно-кредитной политикиThe “black box” of the interest rate channel of monetary policyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9044-5403МоисеевС. Р.MoiseevS. R.

Моисеев Сергей Рустамович, д. э. н., советник первого заместителя Председателя Банка России

Sergey R. Moiseev

Moscow

msr@mail.cbr.ruЦентральный банк Российской ФедерацииРоссияBank of RussiaRussian Federation20200509202009521Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3144

В экономической литературе считается, что для поддержания ценовой стабильности и сбалансированного экономического роста центральные банки управляют долгосрочными процентными ставками по кредитам посредством краткосрочной процентной ставки денежного рынка. Однако о процентном канале денежно-кредитной политики макроэкономическая теория говорит крайне скупо. В общих чертах он обеспечивает изменения через премию за срочность и ожидания на рынке государственных ценных бумаг. В большинстве прикладных исследований экономисты только наблюдают конечную реакцию ставок по кредитам для нефинансового сектора. Традиционно считается, что процентный канал требует развитого финансового сектора. В ряде случаев, в частности при нулевых ставках или в малой открытой экономике, зависящей от валютного курса, процентный канал работает слабо. Тем не менее его эффективность может поддерживаться и без развитых финансовых рынков. Ответ связан с ценообразованием на банковские кредиты.

In the economic literature authors believe that central banks manage long-term interest rates on loans through the short-term money market interest rate in order to maintain price stability and balanced economic growth. However, macroeconomic theory tells extremely sparingly about the interest rate channel of monetary policy. In general terms, it conducts changes through a term premium and expectations in the government securities market. In applied research, economists only observe the final reaction of lending rates to the non-financial sector. Economists traditionally believe that the interest rate channel requires a developed financial sector. In some cases, in particular, at zero rates or in a small open economy that depends on the exchange rate, the interest rate channel works poorly. However, its effectiveness can be maintained without developed financial markets. The answer is the pricing of banking loans.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.