voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-6-5-31voprecotest-3139Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY POLICYМонетарная и макропруденциальная политика в условиях глобального финансового цикла: опыт малых открытых экономикMonetary and macroprudential policy under global financial cycle: The experience of small open economieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9328-0256АхметовР. Р.AkhmetovR. R.

Ахметов Ренат Рамилович, эксперт ЦМАКП, н. с. ИНП РАН, н. с. Центра фундаментальных исследований (ЦФИ) НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Moscow

rakhmetov@forecast.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4256-4838МамоновМ. Е.MamonovM. E.

Мамонов Михаил Евгеньевич, к. э. н., директор Центра исследований международной экономики Института международных исследований МГИМО, PhD-кандидат CERGE-EI, Карлов университет

Москва

Прага

Moscow

Prague

mikhail.mamonov@cerge-ei.czhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9548-2353ПанковаВ. А.PankovaV. A.

Панкова Вера Александровна, эксперт ЦМАКП, н. с. ИНП РАН, н. с. ЦФИ НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Moscow

vpankova@forecast.ruЦентр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования; Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияCenter for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting; Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences; HSE UniversityRussian FederationМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) МИД России; CERGE-EI, Карлов университетРоссияMGIMO University; CERGE-EI, Charles UniversityRussian Federation20210706202106531Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3139

В работе анализируется влияние глобального финансового цикла на малые открытые экономики и сравнивается эффективность мер денежно-кредитной и макропруденциальной политики в условиях глобального финансового цикла. Классифицированы каналы, через которые монетарная политика мировых финансовых регуляторов (ФРС США, ЕЦБ), во многом определяющая глобальный финансовый цикл, транслируется в малые открытые экономики: дифференциала процентных ставок, деятельности глобальных финансовых институтов и цен на сырьевые товары. Рассматриваются аргументы сторонников и критиков «трилеммы» монетарной политики и показано, как ученые приходят к идее о том, что политика инфляционного таргетирования остается оптимальной для достижения ценовой и макроэкономической стабильности, но одной этой политики недостаточно для обеспечения финансовой стабильности. Необходимо ее координировать с мерами макропруденциальной политики. Эти выводы подкреплены анализом кейсов конкретных стран (Россия, Новая Зеландия, Бразилия, Турция и др.) по смягчению негативных последствий экономических кризисов в последние 30 лет.

This review examines the impact of the global financial cycle on small open economies and compares the effectiveness of various monetary and macroprudential policies in the presence of global financial cycle. First, we provide a classification of the channels through which the monetary policy of the world financial regulators (US Federal Reserve, ECB), which largely determines the global financial cycle, is transmitted to small open economies: the channel for interest rates differential, the channel for the activities of global financial institutions, and the channel for commodity prices. Second, by analyzing the arguments of supporters and critics of the monetary policy trilemma, we show how the literature comes to the conclusion that inflation targeting policy is still one of the most optimal solutions for achieving the goals of price and macroeconomic stability but fails to ensure financial stability. The latter requires active coordination with macroprudential policy measures. These conclusions are supported by the analysis of case studies of specific countries (Russia, New Zealand, Brazil, Turkey, etc.), which attempted to mitigate negative consequences of the 2007—2009 global financial crisis.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.