voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-8-41-50voprecotest-3079Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY POLICYДенежно-кредитная политика и эффект переноса нефтяных цен в инфляциюMonetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-3776КартаевФ. С.KartaevPh. S.

Картаев Филипп Сергеевич, д. э. н., завкафедрой математических методов анализа экономики экономического факультета МГУ, вед. н. с. Института международных исследований МГИМО

Москва

Philipp S. Kartaev

Moscow

kartaev@gmail.comМедведевИ. Д.MedvedevI. D.

Медведев Илья Денисович, ассистент кафедры математических методов анализа экономики

Москва

Ilya D. Medvedev

Moscow

МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова; МГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияLomonosov Moscow State University; MGIMO UniversityRussian FederationМГУ имени М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation202003082020084150Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3079

В работе исследуются влияние шоков нефтяных цен на инфляцию, а также воздействие выбора режима денежно-кредитной политики на силу этого влияния. Использованы динамические модели на панельных данных по странам мира за 2000—2017 гг. Показано, что главным образом изме нение нефтяных цен влияет на инфляцию через валютный курс. Анализ межстрановых данных позволяет заключить, что переход к инфляционному таргетированию изменяет характер связи между шоками цен на нефть и инфляцией. Это изменение асимметрично. В периоды роста цен на нефть инфляционное таргетирование снижает эффект переноса нефтяных цен, ограничивая негативные последствия шока. В периоды падения цен на нефть этот режим монетарной политики, напротив, способствует более сильному переносу, помогая бороться с инфляцией.

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.