voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-8-23-40voprecotest-3078Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY POLICYВлияние внешней валютной позиции на макроэкономическую политикуImpact of external currency exposures on macroeconomic policieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5298-1515ПрилепскийИ. В.PrilepskiyI. V.

Прилепский Илья Владимирович, к. ф.-м. н., руководитель направления «Международная экономика» ЭЭГ, с. н. с. Центра бюджетного анализа и прогнозирования НИФИ

Москва

Moscow

iprilepskiy@eeg.ruЭкономическая экспертная группа; Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт Министерства финансов Российской ФедерацииРоссияEconomic Expert Group; Financial Research Institute, Ministry of Finance of the Russian FederationRussian Federation202003082020082340Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3078

На основе межстрановых панельных регрессий проанализировано влияние внешней валютной позиции на денежно-кредитную политику, режим обменного курса и ограничения на капитальные потоки. Установлено, что положительная чистая внешняя позиция (что, в частности, имеет место в РФ) ассоциируется с повышением автономности действий монетарных властей: в этом случае национальные ключевые ставки в меньшей степени реагируют на изменение политики ФРС США и ЕЦБ, а также на колебания валютного курса. Соответственно снижаются риски межстрановой синхронизации финансовых циклов, а центральные банки получают возможность в большей степени концентрироваться на поддержании ценовой стабильности. Значимое положительное влияние чистой внешней валютной позиции на гибкость курсового режима и либерализацию финансового счета выявлено только в рамках статических спецификаций, что, вероятно, связано с двунаправленным характером связей между стимулами к накоплению внешних активов и обязательств, с одной стороны, и данными элементами макроэкономической политики — с другой.

Based on cross-country panel regressions, the paper analyzes the impact of external currency exposures on monetary policy, exchange rate regime and capital controls. It is determined that positive net external position (which, e.g., is the case for Russia) is associated with a higher degree of monetary policy autonomy, i.e. the national key interest rate is less responsive to Fed/ECB policy and exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, the risks of cross-country synchronization of financial cycles are reduced, while central banks are able to place a larger emphasis on their price stability mandates. Significant positive impact of net external currency exposure on exchange rate flexibility and financial account liberalization is only found in the context of static models. This is probably due to the two-way links between incentives for external assets/liabilities accumulation and these macroeconomic policy tools.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.