voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-2-35-47voprecotest-3050Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMACROECONOMIC POLICYМакроэкономическая политика в эпоху пандемии: что говорит модель IS-LM?Macroeconomic policy in a pandemic era: What does the IS-LM model show?https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1448-1696БуклемишевО. В.BuklemishevO. V.

Буклемишев Олег Витальевич, кандидат экономических наук, доцент экономического факультета

Москва

Oleg V. Buklemishev

Moscow

o.buklemishev@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3589-4772ЗубоваЕ. А.ZubovaE. A.

Зубова Екатерина Андреевна, аспирант экономического факультета

Москва

Ekaterina A. Zubova

Moscow

catherine.fys13@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4408-0666КачанМ. Н.KachanM. N.

Качан Максим Николаевич, предприниматель

Москва

Maxim N. Kachan

Moscow

m.kachan@m-finance.clubhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7559-8156КуровскийГ. С.KurovskyG. S.

Куровский Глеб Станиславович, экономист ЦБ РФ, аспирант экономического факультета МГУ

Москва

Gleb S. Kurovsky

Moscow

gleb.kurovskiy@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7610-3418ЛаврентьеваО. Н.LavrentievaO. N.

Лаврентьева Ольга Николаевна, инженер экономического факультета

Москва

Olga N. Lavrentieva

Moscow

onlavrentieva@gmail.comМГУ имени М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian FederationотсутствуетRussian FederationМГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова; Центральный банк Российской ФедерацииРоссияLomonosov Moscow State University; Bank of RussiaRussian Federation202107022021023547Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3050

В статье рассматривается, как пандемия COVID-19 влияет на макроэкономическую политику, задавая динамику процентных ставок в краткосрочном и среднесрочном периоде для развитых стран и стран с развивающейся (переходной) экономикой. В качестве инструмента анализа выбрана макроэкономическая модель общего равновесия IS-LM, которая позволяет выделить механизмы трансляции эффектов пандемии и соответствующей государственной политики на процентные ставки. Отмечены принципиальные различия ситуации в странах, которые уже к началу пандемии находились в ловушке ликвидности, и в странах, где такая ситуация не возникла. Продемонстрированы ограниченная эффективность монетарной политики для восстановления экономической активности в обеих группах стран и потребность в фискальном стимулировании для уменьшения степени неопределенности. В этих условиях возможности долгового финансирования дополнительных расходов, функционирование финансового сектора и обеспечение макропруденциальной стабильности ставят серьезные проблемы перед экономической политикой.

This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect macroeconomic policy, setting the dynamics of interest rates in the short to medium term for developed countries and developing (transition) economies. The macroeconomic model of general equilibrium (IS-LM) was chosen as a simple tool for analysis allowing us to identify mechanisms for translating the effects of the pandemic and the corresponding government policy on interest rates. We emphasize the fundamental differences of the situation in the countries that were already in a liquidity trap at the beginning of the pandemic and in the economies still far from this state. The results of the analysis demonstrate the limited effectiveness of monetary policy to restore economic activity in both groups of the countries and the need for fiscal stimulus to reduce uncertainty (or lower the slope of the model curves). Under these conditions, the capacity of debt financing of additional public expenditures, the functioning of the financial sector and ensuring macroprudential stability pose serious problems for economic policy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.