voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2017-5-60-88voprecotest-304Research ArticleПРОМЫШЛЕННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКАINDUSTRIAL POLICY: THEORY AND PRACTICEПроизводственные мощности обрабатывающей промышленностиРоссии: важнейшие тенденции и структурные характеристикиProduction capacity in Russian manufacturing: Primary trends and structural characteristicsГалимовД. И.GalimovD.

ведущий эксперт

noemail@neicon.ruГнидченкоА. А.GnidchenkoA.

к. э. н., ведущий эксперт

agnidchenko@forecast.ruМихееваО. М.MikheevaO.

эксперт

noemail@neicon.ruРыбалкаА. И.RybalkaA.

эксперт

noemail@neicon.ruСальниковВ. А.SalnikovV.

к. э. н., руководитель направления, заместитель генерального директора. Центр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования (ЦМАКП, Москва)

noemail@neicon.ruЦентр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования (ЦМАКП)РоссияCenter for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term ForecastingRussian Federation201720052017056088Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20172017Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/304

В статье оценивается уровень использования производственных мощностей в российской обрабатывающей промышленности. Предлагается способ построения непрерывных временных рядов производственных мощностей и аналитических показателей для оценки основных характеристик мощностей на основе Формы № 1-натура-БМ Росстата. Сделаны качественные выводы относительно структурных характеристик производственных мощностей и тенденций их изменения, значимых с точки зрения проведения экономической политики.

The paper estimates capacity utilization rate in Russian manufacturing. We also propose the way of building continuous time series of production capacity and analytical indicators used to describe the basic characteristics of production capacity. The data comes from statistical form No. 1-Natura-BM of Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Our findings about trends and structural characteristics of production capacity are shown to be significant for economic policy.

производственные мощностиобрабатывающая про- мышленностьинвестицииосновные фондыроссийская экономикаproduction capacitymanufacturingcapacity utilization ratecapital investmentsfixed assetsRussian economyReferencesСтатья написана по результатам доклада ЦМАКП «Анализ важнейших структурных характеристик производственных мощностей обрабатывающей промышленности России», подготовленного по заказу Центра стратегических разработокApokin A., Belousov D., Goloshchapova I., Ipatova I., Solntsev O. (2014). On the fundamental deficiencies of current monetary policy.Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 80—100. (In Russian).Апокин А., Белоусов Д., Голощапова И., Ипатова И., Солнцев О. (2014). О фундаментальных недостатках современной денежно-кредитной политики // Вопросы экономики. № 12. С. 80-100Bank of Russia (2014). Guidelines for the single state monetary policy in 2015 and for 2016 and 2017. (In Russian).Банк России (2014). Основные направления единой государственной денежно-кредитной политики на 2015 год и период 2016 и 2017 годовZamaraev B., Marshova T. (2015). Production capacity of Russian industry: Potential of import substitution and economic growth. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 6, pp. 5—24. (In Russian).Замараев Б., Маршова Т. (2015). Производственные мощности российской промышленности: потенциал импортозамещения и экономического роста // Вопросы экономики. № 6. С. 5-24Mironov V., Kanofyev V. (2014). Impending recession and how to fight it: Empirical analysis of Russian reality and global experience. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 1, pp. 78—105. (In Russian).Миронов В., Канофьев В. (2014). Грозящая рецессия и как с ней бороться: эмпирический анализ российских реалий и мирового опыта // Вопросы экономики, №1. C. 78-105Sinelnikov-Murylev S., Drobyshevsky S., Kazakova M. (2014). Decomposition of Russian GDP Growth Rates in 1999—2014. Ekonomicheskaya politika, No. 5, pp. 7—37. (In Russian).Синельников-Мурылев С., Дробышевский С., Казакова М. (2014). Декомпозиция темпов роста ВВП России в 1999-2014 годах // Экономическая политика. № 5. С. 7-37Andrle M. (2013). What is in your output gap? Unified framework & decomposition into observables. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/13/105.Andrle M. (2013). What is in your output gap? Unified framework & decomposition into observables. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/13/105.Anxo D., Sterner T. (1994). Using electricity data to measure capital utilization. Energy Economics, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 63-74.Anxo D., Sterner T. (1994). Using electricity data to measure capital utilization. Energy Economics, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 63-74.Beaulieu J.J., Mattey J. (1998). The workweek of capital and capital utilization in manufacturing. Journal of Productivity Analysis, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 199-223.Beaulieu J.J., Mattey J. (1998). The workweek of capital and capital utilization in manufacturing. Journal of Productivity Analysis, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 199-223.Coelli T., Grifell-Tatje E., Perelman S. (2002). Capacity utilization and profitability: A decomposition of short-run profit efficiency. International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 79, No. 3, pp. 261-278.Coelli T., Grifell-Tatje E., Perelman S. (2002). Capacity utilization and profitability: A decomposition of short-run profit efficiency. International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 79, No. 3, pp. 261-278.European Commission (2016). The joint harmonised EU programme of business and consumer surveys: User guide. Brussels.European Commission (2016). The joint harmonised EU programme of business and consumer surveys: User guide. Brussels.Fare R., Grosskopf S., Kokkelenberg E.C. (1989). Measuring plant capacity, utilization and technical change: A nonparametric approach. International Economic Review, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 655-666.Fare R., Grosskopf S., Kokkelenberg E.C. (1989). Measuring plant capacity, utilization and technical change: A nonparametric approach. International Economic Review, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 655-666.Foss M.F. (1963). Utilization of capital equipment: Postwar compared with prewar. Survey of Current Business, Vol. 43, No. 6, pp. 8-16.Foss M.F. (1963). Utilization of capital equipment: Postwar compared with prewar. Survey of Current Business, Vol. 43, No. 6, pp. 8-16.Friedman M. (1963). More on Archibald versus Chicago. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 65-67.Friedman M. (1963). More on Archibald versus Chicago. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 65-67.Federal Reserve (2016). Federal Reserve statistical release. Industrial production and capacity utilization. G.17 (419), July 15. Washington, DC.Federal Reserve (2016). Federal Reserve statistical release. Industrial production and capacity utilization. G.17 (419), July 15. Washington, DC.Gajanan S., Malhotra D. (2007). Measures of capacity utilization and its determinants: A study of Indian manufacturing. Applied Economics, Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 765-776.Gajanan S., Malhotra D. (2007). Measures of capacity utilization and its determinants: A study of Indian manufacturing. Applied Economics, Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 765-776.Havik K., Mc Morrow K., Orlandi F., Planas C., Raciborski R., Röger W., Rossi A., Thum-Thysen A., Vandermeulen V. (2014). The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates & output gaps. European Economy Economic Papers, No. 535.Havik K., Mc Morrow K., Orlandi F., Planas C., Raciborski R., Röger W., Rossi A., Thum-Thysen A., Vandermeulen V. (2014). The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates & output gaps. European Economy Economic Papers, No. 535.Hickman B. G. (1964). On a new method of capacity estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 59, pp. 529-549.Hickman B. G. (1964). On a new method of capacity estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 59, pp. 529-549.IMF (2014). Russian Federation: Selected issues. IMF country report, No. 14/176.IMF (2014). Russian Federation: Selected issues. IMF country report, No. 14/176.Johansen L. (1968). Production functions and the concept of capacity. Recherches Recentes sur la Fonction de Production, Collection. Economic Mathematique et Econometrie, Vol. 2, pp. 49-72.Johansen L. (1968). Production functions and the concept of capacity. Recherches Recentes sur la Fonction de Production, Collection. Economic Mathematique et Econometrie, Vol. 2, pp. 49-72.Jorgenson D.W., Griliches Z. (1967). The explanation of productivity change. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 249-283.Jorgenson D.W., Griliches Z. (1967). The explanation of productivity change. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 249-283.Klein L. R. (1960). Some theoretical issues in the measurement of capacity. Econometrica, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 272-286.Klein L. R. (1960). Some theoretical issues in the measurement of capacity. Econometrica, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 272-286.Klein L. R., Summers R. (1966). The Wharton index of capacity utilization. Philadelphia, PA: Economics Research Unit, University of Pennsylvania.Klein L. R., Summers R. (1966). The Wharton index of capacity utilization. Philadelphia, PA: Economics Research Unit, University of Pennsylvania.McElhattan R. (1978). Estimating a stable-inflation capacity-utilization rate. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Fall, pp. 20-30.McElhattan R. (1978). Estimating a stable-inflation capacity-utilization rate. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Fall, pp. 20-30.METI (2015). Mechanism of and way to understand indices of industrial production. March. Tokyo: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan.METI (2015). Mechanism of and way to understand indices of industrial production. March. Tokyo: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan.Morrison C. J. (1985). Primal and dual capacity utilization: An application to productivity measurement in the U.S. automobile industry. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 312-324.Morrison C. J. (1985). Primal and dual capacity utilization: An application to productivity measurement in the U.S. automobile industry. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 312-324.OECD (2003). Business tendency surveys: A handbook. Paris: OECD Publ.OECD (2003). Business tendency surveys: A handbook. Paris: OECD Publ.Oomes N., Dynnikova O. (2006). The utilization-adjusted output gap: Is the Russian economy overheating? IMF Working Paper, No. WP/06/68.Oomes N., Dynnikova O. (2006). The utilization-adjusted output gap: Is the Russian economy overheating? IMF Working Paper, No. WP/06/68.Prior D., Filimon M. (2002). On the measurement of capacity utilisation and cost efficiency: A non-parametric approach at firm level. Pesquisa Operacional, Vol. 22, No. 2, p. 247-263.Prior D., Filimon M. (2002). On the measurement of capacity utilisation and cost efficiency: A non-parametric approach at firm level. Pesquisa Operacional, Vol. 22, No. 2, p. 247-263.Ray C. C., Mukherjee K., Wu Y. (2006). Direct and indirect measures of capacity utilization: A non-parametric analysis of US manufacturing. The Manchester School, Vol. 74, No. 4, pp. 526-548.Ray C. C., Mukherjee K., Wu Y. (2006). Direct and indirect measures of capacity utilization: A non-parametric analysis of US manufacturing. The Manchester School, Vol. 74, No. 4, pp. 526-548.Ray S. C. (2015). Nonparametric measures of scale economies and capacity utilization: An application to U.S. manufacturing. European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 245, No. 2, pp. 602-611.Ray S. C. (2015). Nonparametric measures of scale economies and capacity utilization: An application to U.S. manufacturing. European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 245, No. 2, pp. 602-611.Reserve Bank of India (2011). Quarterly order books, inventories and capacity utilisation survey: April-June (Round 14). RBI monthly bulletin. New Delhi.Reserve Bank of India (2011). Quarterly order books, inventories and capacity utilisation survey: April-June (Round 14). RBI monthly bulletin. New Delhi.Taubman P., Gottschalk P. (1971). The average workweek of capital in manufacturing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 66, No. 335, pp. 448-455.Taubman P., Gottschalk P. (1971). The average workweek of capital in manufacturing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 66, No. 335, pp. 448-455.Taubman P., Gottschalk P. (1971). The average workweek of capital in manufacturing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 66, No. 335, pp. 448-455.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.