voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-5-86-106voprecotest-2903Research ArticleДИСКУССИОННЫЙ КЛУБDEBATING SOCIETYНекоторые результаты исследования новых кризисных предикторовSome results of research on new crisis predictorshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0005-651XДаниловЮ. А.DanilovYu. A.

Данилов Юрий Алексеевич, к. э. н., вед. н. с.

Москва

Yuri A. Danilov

Moscow

ydanilov@rambler.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6613-5050ПивоваровД. А.PivovarovD. A.

Пивоваров Данил Александрович, н. с.

Москва

Danil A. Pivovarov

Moscow

pivodanil@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2947-7403ДавыдовИ. С.DavydovI. S.

Давыдов Игорь Сергеевич, м. н. с.

Москва

Igor S. Davydov

Moscow

igordav00@gmail.comРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation2020130520200586106Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/2903

В статье приводятся некоторые предположения и гипотезы, сфор мулированные в результате критического анализа нового поколения кризисных предикторов. На суд читателя вынесены три предположения/ гипотезы: 1) о возможном влиянии ухода спреда доходности казначейских облигаций США в отрицательную область на решения ФРС США; 2) о влиянии выполнения центральными банками функции обеспечения финансовой стабильности на их денежно-кредитную политику; 3) о наличии объективных причин более позднего вхождения России в глобальный кризис 2007—2009 гг. Последнее обстоятельство наряду с тем, что часть российских рецессий имеет значимые внутренние причины, свидетельствует о необходимости формировать внутрироссийские кризисные предикторы. Предположения и гипотезы, приводимые в статье, носят дискуссионный характер.

The article provides some assumptions and hypotheses that have arisen as a result of a critical analysis of a new generation of crisis predictors. Three assumptions/hypotheses are submitted to the reader’s court: 1) on the possible impact of the negative spread of the yield on US Treasury bonds on the decisions of the US Federal Reserve; 2) on the effect of the central banks fulfilling the financial stability function on their monetary policy; 3) on the existence of objective reasons for Russia’s later entry into the global crisis of 2007—2009. The latter circumstance, along with the fact that some of the Russian recessions have significant internal causes, indicates the need for forming domestic crisis predictors. The assumptions and hypotheses cited in the article are debatable.

кризисные предикторыфинансовые рынкиэкономический ростфинансовая стабильностьспред доходностифинансовая структураиндекс финансовых условийcrisis predictorsfinancial marketseconomic growthfinancial stabilityprofitability spreadsfinancial structurefinancial condition indexСтатья основана на результатах научно-исследовательских работ, выполненных в РАНХиГС в рамках государственного задания. Авторы благодарят участников рабочих обсуждений их результатов, а также научного семинара в РАНХиГС 16 декабря 2019 г., в первую очередь Л. М. Григорьева и В. Р. Евстигнеева (НИУ ВШЭ), за ценные комментарии. Особая благодарность С. Ю. Винокуру (журнал «Вопросы экономики») за идею выделить дискуссионные тезисы в отдельный текст, О. В. Буклемишеву (экономический факультет МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова) за предложение провести аналогию с «законом Гудхарта», а также анонимному рецензенту за полезные рекомендации, учет которых позволил существенно улучшить качество статьи.ReferencesБанк России (2014). 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.