voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-5-25-44voprecotest-2901Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАECONOMIC POLICYПоследствия. Экономика и политика в постпандемическом миреAfter. Economics and politics of the post-pandemic worldhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7015-5612КолодкоГж. В.KolodkoGr. W.

Колодко Гжегож Витольд, проф., директор TIGER Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research

Варшава

Grzegorz W. Kolodko, TIGER — Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research

Warszawa

kolodko@tiger.edu.plTIGER , Университет КозьминскогоПольшаKozminski UniversityPoland202013052020052544Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/2901

Последствия пандемии коронавируса, потрясшей весь земной шар, будут сказываться еще долгие годы. Она поставила человечество перед лицом невероятных трудностей, совпавших с другими негативными мегатенденциями и нерешенными экономическими, социальными и политическими проблемами. Тяжелейшие последствия и издержки пандемии — гуманитарные, социальные, экономические и финансовые — станут известны лишь по прошествии времени. В то время как одни не потеряют ничего, другие лишатся всего, а некоторые — даже своей жизни. Картина постпандемического мира, в котором в условиях необратимого процесса глобализации будут взаимодействовать различные политические и экономические системы, окажется разноплановой, при этом позиции высокоразвитых стран станут сравнительно слабее. Обострится напряженность в американо-китайских отношениях, изменятся геополитика и геоэкономика. Усилится конфронтация между демократией и авторитаризмом, которая будет сопровождаться трансформацией синергии между рынком и государством. Особенно опасным будет выбор между двумя сторонами одной и той же фальшивой монеты: неолиберальным и популистским капитализмом. Надежду на лучшее будущее может подарить постепенный переход к новому прагматизму, который представляет собой стратегию умеренности в экономической деятельности, а также экономически, социально и экологически устойчивое развитие на основе инновационной, неортодоксальной и целостной экономической теории. Пандемия станет серьезным вызовом для общественных наук (не только для экономики), поскольку старый образ мышления часто будет бесполезен при анализе и объяснении новых ситуаций.

The coronavirus pandemic that has shaken the world will lay a long shadow for many years. It puts humanity in the face of incredible challenges that coincide with other negative mega-trends and unresolved economic, social and political problems. The enormous consequences and costs of the pandemic — human and social, economic and financial — will be known only ex post. While some lose nothing, others lose everything, sometimes even their lives. The heterogeneous, post-pandemic future — in which under the conditions of irreversible globalization various political and economic systems will interact with each other — will follow many paths, with the position of highly developed countries becoming relatively weaker. Tensions on the US—China line will increase, geopolitics and geoeconomics will change. The confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism will intensify, the synergy of the market and the state will be transformed. It will be particularly dangerous to turn two sides of the same counterfeit coin as an alternative: neoliberal capitalism versus populist capitalism. Chances for the better future may be created by a gradual transition to new pragmatism. It is a strategy of moderation in economic activities and a triple — economically, socially and ecologically — sustainable development based on the outline of an innovative, unorthodox and holistic economic theory. Pandemic is also an immense challenge for social sciences, not only for economics, because old manner of thinking will often occur to be useless for analyzing and explaining new situations.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.