voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-10-132-143voprecotest-2789Research ArticleНАУЧНЫЕ СООБЩЕНИЯRESEARCH NOTESРиски проектов государственно-частного партнерства в России: оценка методами нечеткой логикиRisk assessment of public-private partnership in Russia based on the fuzzy logic methodhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0739-4287СавруковА. Н.SavrukovA. N.

Савруков Алексей Николаевич, помощник начальника Центральной дирекции инфраструктуры — филиал ОАО «РЖД», доктор экономических наук, профессор Департамента математики Финансового университета

Москва

savrukov_a@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1688-9006СавруковН. Т.SavrukovN. Т.

Савруков Николай Тарасович, доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры организации и менеджмента

Княгинино, Нижегородская обл.

Knyaginino, Nizhny Novgorod Region

mikul.savrukov@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0983-6907КозловскаяЭ. А.KozlovskayaE. A.

Козловская Эра Анатольевна, доктор экономических наук, профессор Высшей инженерно-экономической школы

Санкт-Петербург

erankoz@mail.ruОАО «РЖД»; Финансовый университет при Правительстве РФРоссияJSC Russian Railways; Financial University under the Government of the Russian FederationRussian FederationНижегородский государственный инженерно-экономический университетРоссияNizhniy Novgorod State Engineering and Economic UniversityRussian FederationСанкт-Петербургский политехнический университет Петра ВеликогоРоссияPeter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic UniversityRussian Federation202028092020010132143Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/2789

Проведена оценка интегрального уровня рисков в проектах государственно-частного партнерства (ГЧП), реализуемых в России, с учетом этапов реализации проектов. Результаты эмпирических оценок показали, что совокупный уровень риска в настоящее время оценивается экспертами как высокий. К ключевым рискам относятся некорректная оценка параметров проектов, возможное изменение тарифов, а также риски, связанные с этапом строительства и спросом на услуги. Большинство факторов риска в проектах ГЧП имеют статус отраслевого, проектного уровня и не связаны с экономическими, политическими либо правовыми условиями. Исследование показало различия в структуре рисков, которые субъекты партнерства готовы принимать и передавать другой стороне, что позволило обосновать распределение рисков между участниками.

This paper is the first to assess the integral level of risks in public-private partnership (PPP) projects being implemented in Russia, taking into account the stages of project implementation. The results of empirical assessments have shown that the aggregate risk level is now estimated by experts as high. The key risks are incorrect assessment of project parameters, possible change of tariffs as well as risks related to the construction stage and demand for services. The majority of risk factors in PPP projects are of sectoral, project-level nature and are not related to economic, political or legal conditions. The study has shown differences in the structure of risks that partnership subjects are willing to take and transfer to another party, which has allowed to justify the distribution of risks among participants.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.