voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2017-2-75-96voprecotest-278Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMACROECONOMIC POLICYПотенциальные выгоды и издержки валютной интеграции в Евразийском экономическом союзеPotential costs and benefits of monetary integration in the Eurasian Economic UnionВинокуровЕ. Ю.VinokurovE.

д.  э.  н., проф. РАН, директор Центра интеграционных исследований Евразийского банка развития (ЕАБР) (Cанкт-Петербург)

Vinokurov_ey@eabr.orgДемиденкоМ. В.DemidenkoM.

к.  э.  н., замдиректора Центра интеграционных исследований ЕАБР (СанктПетербург)

Demidenko_mv@eabr.orgКоршуновД. А.KorshunovD.

MBA, руководитель направления Центра интеграционных исследований ЕАБР (Москва)

Korshunov_da@eabr.orgЕвразийский банк развития (ЕАБР)РоссияCentre for Integration Studies, Eurasian Development BankRussian Federation201720022017027596Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20172017Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/278

Вступивший в силу в 2015 г. Договор о Евразийском экономическом союзе ознаменовал переход государств-участников к стадии глубокой экономической интеграции, в том числе в сфере координации макроэкономической и валютной политики. В статье приводится количественный анализ выгод и издержек предельного сценария, а именно гипотетического валютного союза. Результаты расчетов показывают, что его создание потребует от государств-участников серьезной подготовки и представляется целесообразным только в долгосрочной перспективе.

The Treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), in force in 2015, marked the transition to the deep regional economic integration, including the coordination of macroeconomic and monetary poliсies. The paper provides quantitative analysis of the costs and benefits of the ultimate scenario, namely of the hypothetical monetary union. The analysis indicates that the monetary union would require a large-scale preparatory work by the EAEU member states and is justified only in the long term.

Евразийский экономический союзденежно-кредитная политикавалютный союзобщий рынокмакроэкономическая конвергенцияEurasian Economic Unionmonetary policymonetary unioncommon marketmacroeconomic convergenceReferencesБалашов Д. (2011). Формирование валютного союза в рамках региональной экономической интеграции. Дисс. … канд. экон. наук: 08.00.10. М.: Московская финансово-промышленная академияBalashov D. (2011). Establishment of a currency union within the regional economic integration. PhD thesis. Moscow: Moscow University for Industry and Finance. (In Russian).Дробышевский С., Полевой Д. (2004). Проблемы создания единой валютной зоны в странах СНГ. М.: ИЭПП. (Научные труды ИЭПП, № 80Р)Drobyshevsky S., Polevoy D. (2004). Issues of creation of a single currency area in the CIS countries (Research Paper No. 80P). Moscow: Institute for Economy in Transition. (In ¬Russian).Дробышевский С., Полевой Д. (2007). Финансовые аспекты валютной интеграции на территории СНГ. М.: ИЭПП. (Научные труды ИЭПП, № 190Р)Drobyshevsky S., Polevoy D. (2007). Financial aspects of monetary integration on the territory of the CIS (Research Paper No. 180P). Moscow: Institute for Economy in Transition. (In Russian).ЕЭК, ЕАБР (2016). Система анализа и макроэкономического прогнозирования Евразийского экономического союза. М.; СПб.: Евразийская экономическая комиссия; Евразийский банк развитияEurasian Economic Commission, Eurasian Development Bank (2016). The system of analysis and macroeconomic forecasting for the Eurasian Economic Union. Joint Report. Moscow and St. Petersburg. (In Russian).Кнобель А. Ю., Миронов А. К. (2015). Оценка готовности стран СНГксозданию валютного союза // Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. № 1. C. 76-101Knobel A. Yu., Mironov A. K. (2015). Assessment of CIS countries readiness for the creation of a currency union. Zhurnal Novoy Ekonomicheskoy Assotsiatsii, No. 1, pp. 76—101. (In Russian).Кузнецов В. С. (2015). Валютный союз - будущее ЕАЭС // Вестник МГИМО. № 2. C. 171-179Kuznetsov V. S. (2015). Eurasian monetary union: The future of EAEU. Vestnik MGIMO, No. 2, pp. 171—179. (In Russian).Моисеев С. (2000). Российско-белорусская валютная интеграция: парадигма оптимальной валютной зоны. М.: ММВБMoiseev S. (2000). Russia—Belarus currency integration: The paradigm of a currency area. Moscow: MICEX. (In Russian).Моисеев С. (2016). Приключения теории оптимальных валютных зон // Вопросы экономики. № 2. С. 56-76Moiseev S. (2016). Adventures of the optimum currency areas theory. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 2, pp. 56—76. (In Russian).Панкратов А. (2008). Математическое моделирование интеграции валютных рынков стран СНГ: Дисс. … канд. экон. наук: 08.00.13. Ростов-на-Дону: Южно- Российский государственный технический университетPankratov A. (2008). Modeling integration of currency markets in the CIS. PhD thesis. Rostov-on-Don: South-Russian State Technical University. (In Russian).ЦИИ ЕАБР (2015). Оценка эффекта нетарифных барьеров в ЕАЭС: результаты опросов предприятий (Доклад № 30). СПб.: Центр интеграционных исследований ЕАБРEDB Centre for Integration Studies (2015). Estimating the effect of non-tariff barriers in EAEU: The results of enterprises surveys (Report No. 30). St. Petersburg. (In Russian).Aghion P., Bacchetta P., Ranciere R., Rogoff K. (2006). Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development. NBER Working Paper, No. 12117.Aghion P., Bacchetta P., Ranciere R., Rogoff K. (2006). Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development. NBER Working Paper, No. 12117.Baldwin R. E., Seghezza E. (1996). Growth and European integration: Towards an empirical assessment. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 1393.Baldwin R. E., Seghezza E. (1996). Growth and European integration: Towards an empirical assessment. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 1393.Caporale G. M., De Santis R., Girardi A. (2013). Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU. DIW Discussion Papers, No. 1277.Caporale G. M., De Santis R., Girardi A. (2013). Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU. DIW Discussion Papers, No. 1277.Csajbуk A., Csermely A. (2002). Adopting the euro in Hungary: Expected costs, benefits and timing (Occasional Paper No. 24). Budapest: National Bank of Hungary.Csajbуk A., Csermely A. (2002). Adopting the euro in Hungary: Expected costs, benefits and timing (Occasional Paper No. 24). Budapest: National Bank of Hungary.Dabrowski M. (2016). Currency crises in post-Soviet economies - a never ending story? Russian Journal of Economics, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 302-326.Dabrowski M. (2016). Currency crises in post-Soviet economies - a never ending story? Russian Journal of Economics, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 302-326.De Grauwe P., Mognelli F. (2004). The enlargement of the euro area and optimum currency areas. Paper presented on the conference “EMU Enlargement to the East and the West,” 24-25 September, Budapest.De Grauwe P., Mognelli F. (2004). The enlargement of the euro area and optimum currency areas. Paper presented on the conference “EMU Enlargement to the East and the West,” 24-25 September, Budapest.Emerson M., Gros D., Italianer A., Pisani-Ferry J., Reichenbach H. (1992). One market, one money. An evaluation of the potential benefits and costs of forming an economic and monetary union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Emerson M., Gros D., Italianer A., Pisani-Ferry J., Reichenbach H. (1992). One market, one money. An evaluation of the potential benefits and costs of forming an economic and monetary union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Feenstra R. C., Inklaar R., Timmer M. P. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, Vol. 105, No. 10, pp. 3150-3182.Feenstra R. C., Inklaar R., Timmer M. P. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, Vol. 105, No. 10, pp. 3150-3182.Frankel J. A., Rose A. K. (2000). Estimating the effects of currency unions on trade and output. NBER Working Paper, No. 7857.Frankel J. A., Rose A. K. (2000). Estimating the effects of currency unions on trade and output. NBER Working Paper, No. 7857.Glick R., Rose A. (2015). Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU mea culpa. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 10615.Glick R., Rose A. (2015). Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU mea culpa. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 10615.Grier K., Smallwood A. (2007). Uncertainty and export performance: Evidence fromGrier K., Smallwood A. (2007). Uncertainty and export performance: Evidence fromcountries. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 965-979.countries. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 965-979.Héricourt J., Poncet S. (2012). Exchange rate volatility, financial constraints and trade: Empirical evidence from Chinese firms. CEPII Working Papers, No. 35.Héricourt J., Poncet S. (2012). Exchange rate volatility, financial constraints and trade: Empirical evidence from Chinese firms. CEPII Working Papers, No. 35.Kenen P. B. (1967). The theory of optimal currency areas: An eclectic view. In: R. A. Mundell, A. K. Swoboda (eds.). Monetary problems of the international economy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 41-60.Kenen P. B. (1967). The theory of optimal currency areas: An eclectic view. In: R. A. Mundell, A. K. Swoboda (eds.). Monetary problems of the international economy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 41-60.Krugman P. (1993). What do we need to know about the international monetary system? (Essays in international finance, No. 190). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Krugman P. (1993). What do we need to know about the international monetary system? (Essays in international finance, No. 190). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.McKinnon R. (1963). Optimal currency areas. American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 4, pp. 717-725.McKinnon R. (1963). Optimal currency areas. American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 4, pp. 717-725.Mundell R. A. (1961). Theory of optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 657-665.Mundell R. A. (1961). Theory of optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 657-665.Neumann M. J. M. (1992). Seigniorage in the United States: How much does the U.S. government make from money production? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, pp. 29-40.Neumann M. J. M. (1992). Seigniorage in the United States: How much does the U.S. government make from money production? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, pp. 29-40.Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. (2002). Global implications of self-oriented national monetary rules. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, May, pp. 503-536.Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. (2002). Global implications of self-oriented national monetary rules. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, May, pp. 503-536.Oudiz G., Sachs J. (1984). Macroeconomic policy coordination among the industrial economies. Brookings Papers, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 1-64.Oudiz G., Sachs J. (1984). Macroeconomic policy coordination among the industrial economies. Brookings Papers, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 1-64.Rose A. (2008). Is EMU becoming an optimum currency area? The evidence on trade and business cycle synchronization. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Berkeley.Rose A. (2008). Is EMU becoming an optimum currency area? The evidence on trade and business cycle synchronization. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Berkeley.Schnabl G. (2009). Exchange rate volatility and growth in emerging Europe and East Asia. Open Economies Review, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 565-587.Schnabl G. (2009). Exchange rate volatility and growth in emerging Europe and East Asia. Open Economies Review, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 565-587.Taylor J. (2014). The Federal Reserve in a globalized world economy. Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper, No. 200. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Taylor J. (2014). The Federal Reserve in a globalized world economy. Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper, No. 200. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Weil D. N. (2006). Lecture notes on macroeconomics. Unpublished manuscript.Weil D. N. (2006). Lecture notes on macroeconomics. Unpublished manuscript.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.