voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-2-59-85voprecotest-2665Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL ECONOMICS«Загадка дивидендов» и российский рынок акций. Часть 2The “dividend puzzle” and the Russian stock market. Part 2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4285-9115АбрамовА. Е.AbramovAlexander E.

Абрамов Александр Евгеньевич, к. э. н., завлабораторией анализа институтов и финансовых рынков Института прикладных экономических исследований (ИПЭИ) РАНХиГС

Moscow

abramov-ae@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2242-9994РадыгинА. Д.RadyginAlexander D.

Радыгин Александр Дмитриевич, д. э. н., проф., директор Института экономики, математики и информационных технологий (ЭМИТ) РАНХиГС, член совета директоров Института Гайдара

Moscow

arad@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0144-1820ЧерноваМ. И.ChernovaMaria I.

Чернова Мария Игоревна, н. с. лаборатории анализа институтов и финансовых рынков ИПЭИ РАНХиГС

Москва

Moscow

chernova-mi@ranepa.ruЭнтовР. М.EntovRevold M.

Энтов Револьд Михайлович, академик РАН, гл. н. с. Центра макроэкономических исследований ИПЭИ РАНХиГС

Moscow

entov@iep.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ; Институт экономической политики имени Е. Т. ГайдараРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian FederationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation202007022020025985Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/2665

В статье анализируются особенности дивидендной политики российских компаний. В первой части был приведен обзор академической литературы и текущих трендов. Во второй части работы рассматриваются результаты анализа, основанного на выборке из 236 акционерных обществ. Стремление компаний поддержать инвестиционную привлекательность своих акций в обстановке значительного увеличения рисков и возросшей волатильности способствовало росту дивидендных доходов. Вместе с тем увеличение распределяемой прибыли в крупнейших компаниях с государственным участием (КГУ) было в значительной мере обусловлено ростом напряженности в сфере государственных финансов. Угроза нарастания бюджетного дефицита порождала процессы своеобразного частичного замещения налоговых доходов поступлениями дивидендов от государственных компаний. В то же время усиливались и факторы неопределенности при выборе общей стратегии хозяйственных операций КГУ, в том числе при выборе долгосрочных программ капиталовложений. Результаты статистико-экономических расчетов могут свидетельствовать о том, что в частных компаниях, а также в КГУ, в которых государство имеет ограниченное влияние на дивидендную политику, размеры дивидендных выплат в большей мере зависят от их рентабельности, операционного потока и наличия перспективных инвестиционных проектов. Изучение трендов показывает, что компании такого типа охотнее следуют стратегии сглаживания дивидендов.

The article analyzes the features of the dividend policy of Russian companies. The first part has contained an overview of academic literature and current trends. In the second part we discuss the results of empirical analysis that is based on a sample of 236 joint-stock companies. The motivation of Russian companies for maintaining the attractiveness of their shares during the period of significant increase of risks and volatility led to the growth of dividend yield. However, the increase of allocated profits observed in the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to a large extent resulted from escalation of the tension in government finances. The threat of budget deficit growth led to partial substitution of tax income for dividend income from SOEs. At the same time some factors of uncertainty for SOEs’ operational strategies were increasing, especially those concerning long-term decisions in capital expenditure programs. The results of our analysis reveal that in private companies or SOEs, where the state has a limited influence on the dividend policy, the size of dividend payments to a greater extent depends on their financial performance, cash flows and the availability of promising investment projects. Moreover, the article shows that such companies are more likely to follow dividend smoothing strategies.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.