voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2020-6-80-103voprecotest-2484Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSИзмерение конкурентоспособности по качеству: что не так с высокотехнологичным экспортом?Measuring quality-based competitiveness: What’s wrong with high-tech exports?https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0678-8324ГнидченкоА. А.GnidchenkoA. A.

Гнидченко Андрей Андреевич, к. э. н., ведущий эксперт ЦМАКП, с. н. с. ИНП РАН, с. н. с. НИУ ВШЭ

SPIN-код РИНЦ: 2707-6004; WoS ResearcherID: D-7048-2017; Scopus AuthorID: 55935059300

Москва

Andrey A. Gnidchenko 

Moscow

agnidchenko@forecast.ruЦентр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования; Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияCenter for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting; Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS; National Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation2020070620200680103Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20202020Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/2484

В статье предлагается способ измерения конкурентоспособности стран по качеству на основе данных о доле высокотехнологичных товаров в экспорте и интенсивности НИОКР. Решается проблема несоответствия между уровнем технологического развития стран и долей высокотехнологичной продукции в их экспорте, возникающая в результате широкого распространения сборочных производств, реэкспорта, неравномерности запасов «высокотехнологичного сырья», размещения производств в «налоговых гаванях». В работе предлагается способ обеспечить корректность использования данных о внешней торговле высокотехнологичными товарами как прокси уровня технологического развития стран. С применением методов статистического и графического анализа продемонстрированы масштаб проблемы и недостаточность предложенных в научной литературе мер (прежде всего «вычищения» промежуточного импорта) по ее решению. Разработан новый индекс интенсивности НИОКР на уровне товаров на основе информации о структуре экспорта по товарам и странам-производителям и интенсивности НИОКР, оценена средневзвешенная интенсивность НИОКР, соответствующая структуре экспорта каждой страны. Получен уточненный перечень ведущих стран по доле высокотехнологичного экспорта, более соответствующий традиционному списку стран — лидеров по интенсивности НИОКР (Япония, Южная Корея, Израиль, Германия, США, Франция). Показано, что Китай даже после корректировки сохраняет членство в клубе технологических лидеров.

We propose an approach to measure countries’ quality-based competitiveness relying on the share of high-tech products in exports and R&D intensity. We try to cope with the issue of discrepancy between the level of technological development of countries and the share of high-tech products in their exports that arises as a result of assembly production, re-exports, unequal endowments of “high-tech raw materials” and the attractiveness of tax havens. The task of the paper is to ensure the correct use of data on trade in high-tech products as a proxy for countries’ level of technological development. Relying on statistical and graphical analysis methods, we show that the problem is more complex that is generally considered, and that the ways to solve it proposed in the literature (primarily, subtracting intermediate imports) are far from being sufficient. We propose the index of R&D intensity at the product level based on the data on export structure (by products and producing countries) and R&D intensity, and calculate the weighted average R&D intensity that corresponds to each country’s export structure. As a result, we provide an updated view on the leading countries by the share of high-tech products in exports that is consistent with the traditional list of leaders by R&D intensity (Japan, South Korea, Israel, Germany, USA, and France). We also demonstrate that China, even after the adjustment procedure, is still a member of the technology leaders’ club.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.