voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2019-2-114-133voprecotest-2146Research ArticleИНФРАСТРУКТУРНЫЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИИINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTSИнфраструктурная ипотека в России: возможности и перспективыInfrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospectshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4755-3257ИдрисовГ. И.IdrisovG. I.

Идрисов Георгий Искандерович, д. э. н., проректор РАНХиГС, директор Института отраслевых рынков и инфраструктуры (ИОРИ) РАНХиГС

Москва

Georgy I. Idrisov

Moscow

idrisov@iep.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1188-9293ПономаревЮ. Ю.PonomarevY. Yu.

Пономарев Юрий Юрьевич, к. э. н., зав. лабораторией инфраструктурных и пространственных исследований ИОРИ РАНХиГС, с. н. с. лаборатории исследований отраслевых рынков и инфраструктуры Института экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара

Москва

Yuriy Yu. Ponomarev

Moscow

ponomarev@ranepa.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian FederationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ; Институт экономической политики имени Е. Т. ГайдараРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian Federation20190702201902114133Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20192019Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/2146

В статье показано, что в зависимости от целей, преследуемых федеральным правительством и доступных ему межбюджетных инструментов, предпочтителен различный дизайн инфраструктурной ипотеки. Предложено три ее варианта в России, каждый из них лучше подходит для определенных типов проектов и использует разные формы субсидий. По нашей оценке, реализация инфраструктурной ипотеки в России может повысить среднегодовые темпы экономического роста на 0,5 п. п. на горизонте 5—7 лет. В долгосрочном периоде рост финансирования инфраструктуры за счет использования такой ипотеки может повысить долгосрочные темпы экономического роста на 0,9 п. п., что на протяжении жизни одного поколения (20—30 лет) позволит увеличить ВВП на 20—30%. При этом в случае изменения структуры расходов бюджета и отсутствия роста бюджетного дефицита и государственного долга прямого влияния на денежно-кредитную политику не произойдет. Увеличение дефицита бюджета и наращивание государственного долга могут негативно воздействовать на инфляционные ожидания, что потребует более длительного ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики для их стабилизации.

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.