voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2019-2-5-35voprecotest-2141Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯMACROECONOMIC RESEARCHО диагностике текущего состояния российской экономики и среднесрочных перспективах ее ростаOn the diagnostics of the current state of the Russian economy and its medium-term growth prospectshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7877-9817МироновВ. В.MironovV. V.

Миронов Валерий Викторович, к. э. н., замдиректора Института «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Valery V. Mironov

Moscow

vmironov@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation20190702201902535Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20192019Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/2141

В статье дана оценка ситуации в российской экономике после двухлетнего восстановления и наметившихся признаков стагнации, связанной как с торможением мировой экономики, так и с исчерпанием внутренних источников улучшения конъюнктуры. Рассмотрены подходы к выявлению факторов, инициирующих рост и отличающихся от факторов, поддерживающих его. При этом сделан акцент на факторах неопределенности экономической ситуации и ограниченности внутреннего спроса. Сформулированы подходы к ускорению роста на основе мер макроэкономической и структурной политики, анализируются прогнозы динамики российской экономики на ближайшие годы.

The article assesses the situation in the Russian economy after a two-year recovery and the outlined signs of stagnation associated with both the slowdown of the global economy and the exhaustion of domestic sources of improved market conditions. The approaches to identifying the factors that initiate growth and are different from the factors that support it are considered. In this case, emphasis was placed on the factors of uncertainty of the economic situation and the lack of domestic demand. The approaches to accelerating growth based on macroeconomic and structural policy measures are formulated, forecasts of the Russian economy dynamics for the coming years are analyzed.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.