voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2016-7-36-63voprecotest-212Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯMACROECONOMIC RESEARCH«Экономика постоянных» и длинные циклы динамики цен на энергию“Economics of the constants” and long cycles of energy prices dynamicsБашмаковИ. А.BashmakovI.

д. э. н., генеральный директор Центра энергоэффективности XXI век (ЦЭНЭФ-XXI) (Москва)

bashmaco@co.ruЦентр энергоэффективности XXI век (ЦЭНЭФ XXI)РоссияCenter for Energy Efficiency XXI Century, CENEfXXIRussian Federation201620072016073663Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20162016Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/212

В работе показано, что существует цикличность динамики цен на энергоносители и доли затрат на энергию с периодичностью 25-30 лет. Центром«экономической гравитации» выступает сходная для крупных экономик константа - стабильное в долгосрочном плане отношение затрат на энергию к доходу. Циклические колебания и константы проявляются в каждом секторе энергопотребления. Их наличие определяет феномен «минус единица», согласно которому за полный цикл энергоемкость меняется на величину, обратную изменению реальных цен на энергию. Пороги платежеспособности и асимметричность ценовой эластичности - важные факторы разворотов траектории доли затрат на энергию в сторону центра «экономической гравитации». Цикличность природы динамики цен на энергию проявляется на протяжении пяти веков и пережила смену многих технологических укладов, внедрение множества революционных технологий и изменения в доминировании энергоресурсов.

This paper shows the cyclical evolution of energy prices and energy costs share with cycles lasting 25-30 years. Energy costs constants, i.e. stable over long time energy costs to income ratio, are the center of ‘economic gravitation’. Cycles and energy affordability thresholds are found in all major final energy use sectors manifesting the ‘minus one’ phenomenon, which shows that cyclelong energy intensity changes as much as real energy prices. Energy affordability thresholds and asymmetric price elasticities are important factors determining the existence of the turning points towards the center of ‘economic gravitation’ in the cyclic evolution of energy costs shares. The cyclical nature of energy price dynamics has been manifesting for five centuries and experienced multiple technological transitions and changes in the energy mix.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.