voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2004-6-112-122voprecotest-1910Research ArticleВАЛЮТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАCURRENCY POLICYСтрах перед свободным плаванием или вынужденная стабилизация курса?Fear of Free Floating or Forced Exchange Rate FixingОсиповаО.OsipovaO.

кандидат экономических наук, ведущий эксперт

 

Фонд экономических исследований "Центр развития"РоссияFoundation for Economic Research "Centre of Development"Russian Federation20042006200406112122Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20042004Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/1910

После волны финансовых кризисов конца 1990-х годов многие страны отказались от фиксированного курса валют. Однако перейти к объявленному режиму свободного плаванья так и не удалось. Это может объясняться синдромом "страха плавания" или неизбежным результатом политики центрального банка, направленной на достижение целевой инфляции. В статье систематизированы преимущества и недостатки политики фиксированного и плавающего курсов. Рассматриваются особенности нового возвращения к стабилизации курсов и возможные риски такой политики для России. Особое внимание уделено вопросу о выборе "целевой" корзины, которая может минимизировать "проникновение" внешней инфляции.

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.

фиксированный курсплавающий курспроникновение инфляциивалютная политикаfixed exchange ratefloating exchange rateinflation pass-throughexchange rate policyReferencesAtish Gh., Gulde A.-M., Wolf H. Currency Boards: The Ultimate Fix? Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2000 (Revised as "Currency Boards: More than a Quick Fix?" Economic Policy, vol. 31, October, p. 270-335).Atish Gh., Gulde A.-M., Wolf H. Currency Boards: The Ultimate Fix? Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2000 (Revised as "Currency Boards: More than a Quick Fix?" Economic Policy, vol. 31, October, p. 270-335).BIS. Foreign Exchange Markets. BIS 73-rd Annual Report. June 2003. http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2003e5.pdf.BIS. Foreign Exchange Markets. BIS 73-rd Annual Report. June 2003. http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2003e5.pdf.Calvo G., Reinhart C. Fear of Floating. NBER Working Paper No 7993, November 2002.Calvo G., Reinhart C. Fear of Floating. NBER Working Paper No 7993, November 2002.Detken C., Gaspar V. Maintaining Price Stability under Free-floating: A Fearless Way Out of the Corner? ECB Working Paper No 241, July 2003.Detken C., Gaspar V. Maintaining Price Stability under Free-floating: A Fearless Way Out of the Corner? ECB Working Paper No 241, July 2003.Edwards S., Yeyati Ed. Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers. NBER Working Paper No 9867, July 2003.Edwards S., Yeyati Ed. Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers. NBER Working Paper No 9867, July 2003.Eichengreen B., Bayomy T. Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can it Become One? In: Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Asian Countries. Ed. by S. Collingnon, J. Pisani-Ferry and Yu. Ch. Park. London, 1999.Eichengreen B., Bayomy T. Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can it Become One? In: Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Asian Countries. Ed. by S. Collingnon, J. Pisani-Ferry and Yu. Ch. Park. London, 1999.Freidman M. The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates. Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953.Freidman M. The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates. Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953.Frenkel J. Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies. NBER Working Paper No 10032.Frenkel J. Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies. NBER Working Paper No 10032.Johnston R. B., Swinburne M. Exchange Rate Arrangements and Currency Convertibility: Developments and Issues. World Economic and Financial Surveys. Washington, DC: IMF, 1999.Johnston R. B., Swinburne M. Exchange Rate Arrangements and Currency Convertibility: Developments and Issues. World Economic and Financial Surveys. Washington, DC: IMF, 1999.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.