voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2018-12-28-45voprecotest-1831Research ArticleБЮДЖЕТНО-НАЛОГОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКАFISCAL POLICYОценка воздействия бюджетных расходов на экономическую активностьThe assessment of budget expenditures impact on economic activityБеляковИ. В.BelyakovI. V.

Беляков Игорь Вячеславович, к. физ.-мат. н., руководитель направления «Финансовые рынки» Экономической экспертной группы, с. н. с. Центра бюджетного анализа и прогнозирования Научно-исследовательского финансового института

Москва

Igor V. Belyakov

Moscow

Igor.Belyakov@eeg.ruЭкономическая экспертная группа; Научно-исследовательский финансовый институтРоссияEconomic Expert Group; Financial Research InstituteRussian Federation2018201220180122845Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20182018Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/1831

В работе изучается воздействие государственных расходов на базовые компоненты экономической активности — частное потребление и инвестиции; дается его оценка на основе российских данных (за 1995—2017 гг.). Серьезное внимание уделено теоретическим обоснованиям возможного влияния бюджетной политики на экономический рост и его компоненты, а также обзору имеющихся в данной области результатов. Для описания госрасходов выбраны показатели конечного использования ресурсов — госпотребление и госинвестиции. Полученные результаты свидетельствуют в целом о кратко-срочном позитивном влиянии госрасходов на частное потребление и негативном — на частные инвестиции. Выявлена существенная роль изменения макроэкономических условий, отмеченного примерно в середине рассматриваемого периода.

The article explores the impact of government spending on the key components of economic activity in Russia, such as private consumption and investment. The author pays serious attention to the theoretical justifications of the possible impact of fiscal policy on economic growth and its components, as well as reviews the empirical results obtained in this area. In the empirical part of the article, government expenditures are represented by the “GDP by expenditure” items — government consumption and government investment. The results, for Russian data covering the period of 1995—2017, indicate a short-term positive impact of government spending on private consumption and a negative impact on private investment. It also proves important to take into consideration the changes in macroeconomic conditions that occurred approximately in the middle of the observed period.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.