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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">voprecotest</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вопросы экономики</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Voprosy Ekonomiki</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0042-8736</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.32609/0042-8736-2007-5-81-99</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">voprecotest-1605</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ГОСУДАРСТВО В ЭКОНОМИКЕ: ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКИЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>THE STATE IN THE ECONOMY: ECONOMETRIC STUDIES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Шокотерапия против градуализма: 15 лет спустя</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: 15 Years Later</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Попов</surname><given-names>В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Popov</surname><given-names>V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор экономических наук, профессор РЭШ, зав. сектором АНХ</p><p> </p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российская экономическая школа; Академия народного хозяйства при Правительстве РФ</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>New Economic School; Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2007</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day><month>05</month><year>2007</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>81</fpage><lpage>99</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 2007</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2007</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/1605">https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/1605</self-uri><abstract><p>Настоящая статья опирается на предыдущее исследование 10-летней давности, в котором выделяются два главных фактора различий в экономической динамике в странах с переходной экономикой в период трансформационного спада - масштабы диспропорций в плановой экономике и сила институтов, то есть способность государства гарантировать контракты, права собственности и правопорядок в целом. В данной статье, во-первых, оценивается проблема обратной связи (эндогенности) между либерализацией и экономической динамикой и, во-вторых, рассматриваются факторы динамики производства в период экономического восстановления. В начале переходного периода темпы либерализации оказывают отрицательное воздействие на динамику производства (больше либерализация - больше спад). Однако по мере экономического восстановления либерализация начинает положительно воздействовать на рост, тогда как влияние на него масштабов диспропорций в отраслевой структуре и во внешней торговле, напротив, исчезает.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This paper starts by separating the transformational recession from the process of economic growth (recovery from the transformational recession) in 28 transition economies (including China, Vietnam and Mongolia). It is argued that the collapse of output during transition can be best explained as adverse supply shock caused mostly by two factors: change in relative prices after their deregulation due to distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns accumulated during the period of central planning; collapse of state institutions during transition period that worsened the investment climate. The speed of liberalization, to the extent it was endogenous, i.e. determined by political economy factors, had an adverse effect on performance as the 2SLS estimates suggest. In contrast, at the recovery stage the ongoing liberalization starts to affect growth positively, whereas the impact of pre-transition distortions disappears. Institutional capacity and reasonable macroeconomic policy, however, continue to be important prerequisites for successful performance.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>трансформационный спад</kwd><kwd>шоковая терапия</kwd><kwd>либерализация</kwd><kwd>институты</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>transformational recession</kwd><kwd>shock therapy</kwd><kwd>liberalization</kwd><kwd>institutions</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Полтерович В. М., Попов В. В. Демократизация и экономический рост // Общественные науки. 2007. № 2. http://www.nes.ru/%7Evpopov/documents/Democracy-2006DEC-Russian.pdf.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Полтерович В. М., Попов В. В. 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