voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2018-11-125-141voprecotest-1521Research ArticleДИСКУССИОННЫЙ КЛУБDEBATING SOCIETYДолговременная стагнация в современном миреSecular stagnation in the modern worldДробышевскийС. М.DrobyshevskyS. M.

Дробышевский Сергей Михайлович, д. э. н., директор по научной работе Института экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара (Институт Гайдара); завлабораторией макроэкономических исследований РАНХиГС

Москва

Sergey M. Drobyshevsky

Moscow

dsm@iep.ruТрунинП. В.TruninP. V.

Трунин Павел Вячеславович, д. э. н., в. н. с. Центра изучения проблем центральных банков РАНХиГС; руководитель научного направления «Макроэкономика и финансы» Института Гайдара

Москва

Pavel V. Trunin

Moscow

pt@iep.ruБожечковаА. В.BozhechkovaA. V.

Божечкова Александра Викторовна, к. э. н., с. н. с. Центра изучения проблем центральных банков РАНХиГС; завлабораторией денежно-кредитной политики Научного направления «Макроэкономика и финансы» Института Гайдара

Москва

Аlexandra V. Bozhechkova

Moscow

bojechkova@ranepa.ruИнститут экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара (Институт Гайдара); Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ (РАНХиГС)РоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian FederationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ (РАНХиГС); Институт экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара (Институт Гайдара)РоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation201820112018011125141Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20182018Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/1521

В статье отражено исследование факторов долговременной стагнации. К ключевым факторам длительного замедления темпов экономического роста относятся снижение темпов технологического развития, негативные демографические тенденции, наступление пределов накопления человеческого капитала, высокий государственный долг, нарушение процесса созидательного разрушения и др. На основе анализа ключевых теоретических аспектов процесса долговременного торможения современных экономик данный процесс проиллюстрирован на примере Японии. Сделан вывод, что большинство указанных факторов оказывают влияние на экономику Японии в последние десятилетия, хотя и их влияние не исчерпывающее. Для современной России, напротив, нет оснований связывать замедление темпов роста экономики с факторами долговременной стагнации.

The paper studies the factors of secular stagnation. Key factors of long-term slowdown in economic growth include the slowdown of technological development, aging population, human capital accumulation limits, high public debt, creative destruction process violation etc. The authors analyze key theoretical aspects of long-term stagnation and study the impact of these factors on Japanies economy. The authors conclude that most of the factors have significant influence on the Japanese economy for recent decades, but they cannot explain all dynamics. For Russia, on the contrary, we do not see any grounds for considering the decline in the economy since 2013 as an episode of secular stagnation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.