voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2015-12-5-31voprecotest-145Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMACROECONOMIC POLICYРоссийская девальвация 2014-2015 гг.: падение в пропасть или окно возможностей?Russian Devaluation in 2014-2015: Falling into the Abyss or Window of Opportunities?МироновВ. В.MironovV.

к. э. н., замдиректора Института «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ (Москва)

vmironov@hse.ruНИУ ВШЭРоссияNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation201520122015012531Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20152015Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/145

Падение цен на нефть, вызывая сокращение внутреннего спроса, одновременно резко снижает валютный курс рубля, что способствует росту ценовой конкурентоспособности российских производителей, стимулирует предложение (особенно на внешних рынках, где нет рецессии) и позволяет в той или иной степени компенсировать падение внутреннего спроса за счет роста чистого экспорта. Однако проведенный в статье анализ показывает, что в целом для российской экономики в ее нынешнем состоянии, с учетом всех структурных проблем, произошедшая девальвация рубля может привести к более тяжелой рецессии, чем (судя по усредненным консенсусным оценкам) ожидали в своих прогнозах по состоянию на конец сентября 2015 г. большинство экспертов.

The fall in the oil prices from mid-2014 is causing a decrease in domestic demand and a strong devaluation of the ruble, which in turn promotes the growth of the price competitiveness of Russian producers, stimulates the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets, where there is no recession), and thus creates the possibility of offsetting the fall in domestic demand due to the growth of net exports. However, as the analysis of the economic literature, the world experience and current Russian economic trends demonstrates, the joint impact of oil prices and ruble devaluation on the growth rates of the Russian economy, with all its structural problems, can lead to a much more severe recession than the majority of experts, if to judge by average consensus estimates, expect in their forecasts (as of the end of September 2015).

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.