voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2015-11-5-29voprecotest-129Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ТРУДА И СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ СФЕРЫLABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICSМоделирование механизмов российского рынка трудаModeling the Mechanisms of Russian Labour MarketВакуленкоЕ. С.VakulenkoE.

к. э. н., старший научный сотрудник факультета экономических наук Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики» (Москва)

evakulenko@hse.ruГурвичЕ. Т.GurvichE.

к. физ.-мат. н., руководитель Экономической экспертной группы (Москва)

egurvich@eeg.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (Москва)РоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russia)Russian FederationЭкономическая экспертная группаРоссияEconomic Expert Group (Moscow, Russia)Russian Federation201520112015011529Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20152015Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/129

В работе моделируется связь между основными показателями российского рынка труда: производительностью труда, реальной зарплатой и безработицей. Анализ проводился по квартальным данным за период с начала 1995 по III квартал 2013 г. Все модели строились также для «бескризисного» периода, что позволяет косвенно судить об эффекте кризисных шоков. В качестве инструмента эконометрического анализа использовалась векторная модель коррекции ошибок. Были получены коинтеграционные соотношения анализируемых переменных. При этом знаки коэффициентов связи полностью соответствовали экономической логике, а их численные значения практически совпали для полного и «бескризисного» периодов. Проведенные тесты не выявили значимой асимметрии в реакции российского рынка труда на положительные и отрицательные отклонения от долгосрочного равновесия (что нередко наблюдается в других странах). Построенная модель позволяет оценить роль различных факторов, определяющих динамику оплаты труда: в целом за весь период практически равный вклад в этот рост вносили увеличение производительности труда и снижение безработицы. Это объясняет наблюдаемую в России необычную тенденцию к росту доли оплаты труда в ВВП. Межстрановые сопоставления показывают, что российский рынок труда не отличается ни повышенной реакцией зарплаты, ни пониженной реакцией занятости на шоки производительности или объема производства.

We investigate the relationship between the key labour market indicators: productivity, real wages, and unemployment rate. The analysis is based on quarterly data for the period Q1 1995 to Q3 2013. The period free of crises (early 1999 to mid-2008) is additionally considered to check the crisis effects. We estimate vector error correction model (VECM). Cointegration was found among the main labour market variables. The model coefficient signs fully corresponded to the economic logic, and their magnitudes were almost identical for both time spans. No significant asymmetry to positive and negative deviations from the long-term trend was revealed at the Russian labour market. The model has allowed to measure contribution of different channels to the wage growth. We find that productivity growth and decline in unemployment had similar impact on the wage change over the period under consideration. Our results explain thus the observed unusual trend of marked increase of the wage share in GDP. Contrary to standard beliefs, cross-country comparisons show neither an increased reaction of wages nor a weak reaction of employment to productivity or output shocks.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.