voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2015-10-30-53voprecotest-122Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАECONOMIC POLICYВ поисках новых источников роста. Догоняют ли развивающиеся страны развитые?Searching for new Sources of growth. Are the Developing Countries Catching up with the Developed ones?ПоповВ. В.PopovV.

д.  э.  н., проф. РАНХиГС, проф. Emeritus Российской экономической школы (Москва)

vpopov@nes.ruРАНХиГС; Российская экономическая школа (Москва)РоссияRussian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; New Economic School (Moscow, Russia)Russian Federation2015201020150103053Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20152015Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/122

В статье исследуется долговременная траектория роста развивающихся стран. До XVI в. все страны находились примерно на одном уровне экономического развития, но затем страны, которые мы сегодня называем западными, стали расти быстрее остальных. К 1950 г. в США, наиболее развитой стране Запада, показатель ВВП на душу населения по ППС был почти в 5 раз выше, чем в среднем в мире, и почти в 2 раза выше, чем в Западной Европе. Но с 1950 г. рост этого соотношения прекратился: в послевоенный период Западная Европа и Япония приблизились к уровню США по подушевому доходу; Восточная и Южная Азия, а также некоторые страны в других регионах тоже стали сокращать этот разрыв. После почти 500 лет роста разрыва в подушевых доходах Юга и Запада мир, похоже, вступил в период выравнивания уровней развития. В статье анализируются факторы такой неравномерной динамики, сценарии на будущее и последствия для мирового экономического порядка.

This paper examines the trajectory of growth in the Global South. Before the 1500s all countries were roughly at the same level of development, but from the 1500s Western countries started to grow faster than the rest of the world and PPP GDP per capita by 1950 in the US, the richest Western nation, was nearly 5 times higher than the world average and 2 times higher than in Western Europe. Since 1950 this ratio stabilized - not only Western Europe and Japan improved their relative standing in per capita income versus the US, but also East Asia, South Asia and some developing countries in other regions started to bridge the gap with the West. After nearly half of the millennium of growing economic divergence, the world seems to have entered the era of convergence. The factors behind these trends are analyzed; implications for the future and possible scenarios are considered.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.