voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2015-9-5-30voprecotest-112Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMACROECONOMIC POLICYНефтяной суперцикли бюджетная политикаOil supercycle and fiscal policyГурвичЕ. Т.GurvichE.

к. физ.-мат. н., руководитель Экономической экспертной группы (ЭЭГ) (Москва)

egurvich@eeg.ruБеляковИ. В.BelyakovI.

к. физ.-мат. н., руководитель направления «Финансовые рынки» ЭЭГ, старший научный сотрудник Научно-исследовательского финансового института Министерства финансов РФ (Москва)

igor.belyakov@eeg.ruПрилепскийИ. В.PrilepskiyI.

к. физ.-мат. н., руководитель направления «Международная экономика» ЭЭГ

iprilepskiy@eeg.ruЭкономическая экспертная группа (ЭЭГ) (Москва)РоссияEconomic Expert Group (Moscow, Russia)Russian FederationЭкономическая экспертная группа (ЭЭГ) (Москва); Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт Министерства финансов РФ (Москва)РоссияEconomic Expert Group (Moscow, Russia); Financial Research Institute (Moscow, Russia)Russian Federation20152009201509530Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20152015Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/112

В работе рассматривается долгосрочная динамика цен на нефть. Показано, что их прогнозы обычно экстраполируют в будущее текущий уровень и тенденции изменения цен. В то же время анализ исторических рядов цен на нефть и экономических механизмов их формирования говорит о наличии суперциклов - колебаний с большой амплитудой и периодом, составляющим несколько десятилетий. Обсуждаются принципы, которым должна следовать бюджетная политика в условиях циклической динамики цен на нефть. В частности, доказывается, что в условиях колебаний цен на нефть Резервный фонд получает гарантированный доход от разницы между курсом, при котором средства поступают в него, и курсом, при котором они расходуются. Это делает механизм Резервного фонда исключительно выгодным для государства с доходностью значительно выше, чем по другим видам инвестиций.

Long-term trends in oil price are discussed in the article. We find out that both short- and long-term projections mainly extrapolate into the future current developments in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile both historical data and analysis of fundamental economic mechanisms reveal supercycles - price waves with large amplitude and length amounting to several decades. Implications for fiscal policy from oil price swings are considered. We demonstrate in particular that these swings ensure high returns on the oil fund operations due to substantial gap between exchange rates at the periods of fund replenishment and withdrawal. This makes the oil Reserve fund mechanism by far more profitable for the government than other potential investment tools.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.