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"Voprosy economiki" № 2 2019
MACROECONOMIC STUDIES

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS

V. V. Mironov. On the diagnostics of the current state of the Russian economy and its medium-term growth prospects

The article assesses the situation in the Russian economy after a two-year recovery and the outlined signs of stagnation associated with both the slowdown of the global economy and the exhaustion of domestic sources of improved market­ conditions. The approaches to identifying the factors that initiate growth and are different from the factors that support it are considered. In this case, emphasis was placed on the factors of uncertainty of the economic situation and the lack of domestic demand. The approaches to accelerating growth based on macroeconomic and structural policy measures are formulated, forecasts of the Russian economy dynamics for the coming years are analyzed.

JEL: D8, E20, E23, E50, E60.
Keywords: economic growth, diagnostics of growth, uncertainty of economic situation, structure of economy, economic policy.

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I. L. Lyubimov, A. G. Ospanova. How to make an economy more complex? The determinants of complexity in historical perspective

A higher level of per capita income is associated with a better diversified and more complex export basket. Moreover, a number of results indicate that this relationship might be causal. However, what affects the level of economic complexity itself is yet to be established. In this paper, we focus on a small list of potential determinants of economic complexity. We show that a higher level of complexity is associated with a higher level of human capital accumulation. It is also linked to the initial level of complexity through an inverse U-shaped relationship. These findings survive a number of key robustness checks.

JEL: O100, O140, O180, F10, F14.
Keywords: economic growth, export, economic complexity, income inequality.

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N. A. Ranneva. Inflation expectations: An overview of modern approaches

Modern economic theory considers expectations as a key determinant of actual inflation. How agents form those expectations therefore plays a central role in macroeconomic dynamics and policy-making. The understanding of the expectation formation process and the real-time estimation of expectations are especially important for central banks because they need to be sure that longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the target of inflation, set by the central bank. When expectations are anchored — it is a clear sign that the monetary policy is effective and that markets trust the central bank. However, it is not easy to assess the expected inflation: it is not observable and cannot be directly measured. Central banks can only use the indirect estimates of this variable. For many years the main theoretical framework for modeling and analysis of inflation expectations was Phillips curve with rational expectations which substituted the adaptive expectations. Today many alternative models of expectation formation are available. The article provides a brief overview of the evolution of theoretical approaches to inflation expectation formation and their impact on the monetary policy. Besides, using the experience of the U.S., the article addresses two main ways to gauge inflation expectations empirically — survey-based measures (for different groups of respondents) and measures based on the data from American financial markets. Shortcomings and merits of both approaches are discussed, as well as the importance of highly developed financial markets, which can become the source of more precise information on inflation expectations.

JEL: B22, E31, E37, E44, E52, G12.
Keywords: inflation expectations, Phillips curve, adaptive expectations, rational expectations, forward-looking expectations, information ridigity, bounded rationality.

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I. L. Kavitskaya, I. N. Safonov. Heterogeneous corruption and inflation

The article analyzes the simultaneous influence of different types of corruption on inflation in the absence of seignorage. Basing on the model of fiscal and monetary policymakers behavior, we analyze the joint impact of "grand" and "petty cash" corruption on economy in short and long term in discretionary policy and rational expectation assumptions. Research findings demonstrate that even in the absence of seignorage heterogeneous corruption relates to inflation differently in short and long term: in the first case, relationship is positive and straightforward, in the second, some indirect effects take place what reduces equilibrium inflation in the long run compared to the short run.

JEL: D73, E31, E58, E61.
Keywords: corruption, inflation, optimal central bank policy.

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I. M. Drapkin, S. A. Lukyanov. Foreign direct investment spillovers in the Russian economy: The results of empirical estimation

The paper is devoted to the foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in the Russian economy. Using the database on 29,817 Russian enterprises for the period of 2006—2014, we empirically estimate FDI spillovers on both intra-industry and inter-industry levels. We show that the intra-industry effects and upstream inter-industry effects have the non-linear U-shape dependence on the share of foreign companies in the industry, while downstream inter-industry effects are linear and negative. Analysing regional factors influencing FDI spillovers in the Russian economy, we find stronger effects in the regions with higher level of human capital and higher level of innovation activity. We do not find the proof for the hypothesis that FDI spillovers are stronger in the western part of Russia comparing to the eastern part.

JEL: F21, F63.
Keywords: foreign direct investment, spillovers, horizontal FDI spillovers, vertical FDI spillovers.

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G. I. Idrisov, Y. Yu. Ponomarev. Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

JEL: E60, H50, H54, H63.
Keywords: infrastructure development, infrastructure mortgage, productive expenditures, public-private partnership.

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G. A. Borshchevskiy. Institutional environment creating for attracting investment into infrastructure: The cases of Russian regions

The article examines the institutional process in a regional economy connected with the infrastructure development. We use the neoinstitutional approach to study factors that influence the behavior of government and business in their interaction in the economy. We also use statistical methods to analyze the dynamics of socio-economic development indicators of the subjects of the Russian Federation as well as the results of measures to attract private investment into infrastructure, including the PPP. We chose the city of Moscow and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District as two empirical case studies which differ in economic and geographic conditions, but both demonstrate success in attracting private investment and implementing infrastructure projects. Our conclusions are consistent with a theory that asserts the primacy of institutional environment in relation to project implementation. We make also some practical recommendations for the development of the institutional environment which are acceptable for all regions solving similar problems of infrastructure development.

JEL: E02, H54, R58.
Keyworlds: institutional environment, infrastructure, public-private partner­ship, investment.

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